28th Sep. English Premier League---Newcastle United VS Arsenal Prediction
English Premier League - Newcastle United VS Arsenal
Match Time:28-09-2025 23:30 Sunday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Team Reviews
Newcastle United are entering this Premier League Matchday 6 clash at St. James’ Park on September 28, 2025, in a challenging position, sitting 13th with 6 points from five matches (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss). Their recent form shows one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five competitive matches, including a 1-0 league win over Wolverhampton Wanderers and a 4-1 EFL Cup win over Bradford City on September 24, 2025. They’ve scored three goals and conceded three in the league, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game. At home, Newcastle are unbeaten in their last three league games, with goalkeeper Nick Pope keeping two clean sheets. Coach Eddie Howe’s 4-3-3 relies on Anthony Gordon’s wing play and Harvey Barnes’s finishing (one goal). Injuries to Fabian Schär (head), Yoane Wissa (unspecified), and Jacob Ramsey (unspecified) are concerns, but Bruno Guimarães is available. Newcastle will leverage their intense home crowd to press high and exploit Arsenal’s depleted squad, aiming to repeat their 1-0 win over Arsenal in November 2024.
Arsenal are in strong form, sitting 2nd with 10 points from five matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Their recent form includes three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five, with a 2-0 EFL Cup win over Port Vale on September 24, 2025, and a 2-0 Champions League win at Athletic Bilbao. They’ve scored 10 goals and conceded two in the league, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game. Away form is solid, with two wins in their last three road games, though they lost 1-0 at Liverpool. Coach Mikel Arteta’s 4-2-3-1 depends on Viktor Gyökeres’s finishing (three goals) and Eberechi Eze’s creativity (one goal, one assist). Injuries to Martin Ødegaard (shoulder), Gabriel Jesus (cruciate ligament), Kai Havertz (knee), and Riccardo Calafiori (knee bruise) are significant, but Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice are available. Arsenal will aim to control possession and counter Newcastle’s pressure, seeking their first away win at Newcastle since May 2023.
Head to Head
Arsenal have a strong historical edge, winning 36 of 57 Premier League meetings with Newcastle (13 draws, 8 losses), as detailed in the sports card above. Recent clashes include a 1-0 Arsenal win on May 18, 2025 (Declan Rice scoring) and a 1-0 Newcastle win on November 2, 2024, at St. James’ Park. At Newcastle, Arsenal have lost four of their last five visits (1-0 in 2024, 2-0 in 2022 and 2024 EFL Cup, 1-0 in 2023), with their last win there a 2-0 victory in May 2023. Matches average 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of recent encounters, suggesting a tight, low-scoring game. Newcastle’s recent home wins over Arsenal give them a psychological boost, but Arsenal’s 31 clean sheets against Newcastle (most against any opponent) keep them confident.
Prediction
Arsenal’s superior form and attacking depth make them slight favorites, despite Newcastle’s strong home record against them and Arsenal’s injury concerns. I predict a 1-1 draw, with Gyökeres or Saka likely scoring for Arsenal and Gordon or Barnes replying for Newcastle. The draw probability is around 35%, reflecting Newcastle’s 4-1 Bradford win and Arsenal’s 2-0 Bilbao victory. Expect Arsenal to edge possession (around 55%) and corners (6-8 projected), with Newcastle’s counters posing a threat. The game should see both teams’ wingers testing defenses, with Newcastle’s defensive solidity (fewest shots faced in the league) balancing Arsenal’s attack, leading to a stalemate.
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