9th Oct. AFC Asian Cup---Vietnam VS Nepal Prediction
AFC Asian Cup - Vietnam VS Nepal
Match Time:09-10-2025 20:30 Thursday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Team Reviews
Vietnam are entering this AFC Asian Cup Saudi Arabia 2027™ Qualifiers Final Round (Third Round, Group F) Matchday 3 clash at a neutral venue (due to Nepal’s stadiums not meeting AFC requirements) on October 9, 2025, as favorites, sitting 2nd in Group F with 3 points from two matches (1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss). Their recent form shows a 4-1 win over Laos in the ASEAN Championship on September 25, 2025, but a 4-0 loss to Malaysia in the qualifiers on September 10, 2025. In the qualifiers, they’ve scored five goals and conceded four, averaging 2.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Vietnam’s away form is mixed, with one win in their last three road games across competitions. Coach Kim Sang-sik’s 4-2-3-1 relies on Nguyễn Văn Toàn’s finishing (one goal vs. Laos) and Đỗ Hùng Dũng’s leadership, but star midfielder Nguyễn Quang Hải is out injured (not fully healed). Vietnam will aim to dominate possession and exploit Nepal’s defensive frailties, targeting a win to reclaim the group lead.
Nepal are struggling, sitting 4th in Group F with 0 points from two matches (0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). Their recent form includes a 2-1 loss to Laos on June 10, 2025, and a 2-0 defeat to Malaysia in March 2025, alongside a 2-2 draw against West Indies in a T20 cricket match (irrelevant to football). In the qualifiers, they’ve scored one goal and conceded four, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Nepal’s “home” form is poor, with no wins in their last five competitive matches at neutral venues. Coach Vincenzo Annese’s 4-4-2 depends on Anjan Bista’s finishing (one goal) and a compact defense. No major injuries are reported, but squad depth is limited. Nepal will focus on staying organized to counter Vietnam’s attack, hoping for a rare upset to keep their qualification hopes alive.
Head to Head
Vietnam and Nepal have met twice in recent years, with Vietnam winning both: a 2-0 victory in the 2018 Asian Games and a 3-0 win in a 2022 friendly. Matches average 2.5 goals, with Nepal failing to score in either game, suggesting Vietnam’s dominance. Vietnam’s 4-1 Laos win and Nepal’s 2-1 Laos loss reinforce Vietnam’s edge, but Nepal’s competitiveness against Laos indicates potential to challenge if they capitalize on Vietnam’s missing key player.
Prediction
Vietnam’s superior attacking output and historical dominance make them clear favorites, despite playing at a neutral venue and missing Nguyễn Quang Hải. Nepal’s defensive struggles and winless qualifier run limit their chances. I predict a 3-0 Vietnam win, with Văn Toàn or Hùng Dũng scoring, and Nepal unable to breach Vietnam’s defense. Vietnam’s win probability is around 70%, reflecting their 4-1 Laos win and Nepal’s 2-0 Malaysia loss. Expect Vietnam to control possession (around 60%) and corners (8-10 projected), with Nepal’s counters limited. The game should see Vietnam’s attack overwhelm Nepal’s defense, securing three points to strengthen their Group F position.
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