9th Oct. AFC Asian Cup---Bangladesh VS Hong Kong Prediction
AFC Asian Cup - Bangladesh VS Hong Kong
Match Time:09-10-2025 22:00 Thursday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Team Reviews
Bangladesh are entering this AFC Asian Cup Saudi Arabia 2027™ Qualifiers Final Round (Third Round, Group C) Matchday 3 clash at the National Stadium in Dhaka on October 9, 2025, in a challenging position, sitting 3rd in Group C with 1 point from two matches (0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Their recent form shows a 0-0 draw against India and a 2-1 loss to Singapore in June 2025, alongside a 1-0 friendly win over Bhutan. In the qualifiers, they’ve scored one goal and conceded two, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. At home, Bangladesh are resilient, with one loss in their last five competitive matches at Dhaka. Coach Javier Cabrera’s 4-2-3-1 relies on Morsalin Sheikh’s finishing (one goal vs. Singapore) and Sohel Rana’s midfield energy. No major injuries are reported, but squad depth is limited (FIFA rank 184th). Bangladesh will leverage their home crowd to press Hong Kong, aiming for their first qualifier win to boost their chances of reaching their first major tournament.
Hong Kong are in stronger form, sitting 2nd in Group C with 4 points from two matches (1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses). Their recent form includes a 1-0 win over India on September 10, 2025, with Stefan Pereira’s stoppage-time penalty, and a 0-0 draw against Singapore in March 2025. They’ve scored one goal and conceded zero in the qualifiers, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game. Away form is decent, with one win in their last three road games. Coach Ashley Westwood’s 4-2-3-1 depends on Pereira’s finishing and Matthew Orr’s creativity. No key injuries are reported, and Chan Siu Kwan is available. Hong Kong, ranked 146th, will aim to maintain their defensive solidity and counter Bangladesh’s attack, targeting a second straight Asian Cup qualification after 2023.
Head to Head
Hong Kong lead the historical record, winning two of their last three meetings with Bangladesh since 2006 (no Bangladesh wins, one draw). Their most recent clash was a 0-0 friendly draw in 2006. Matches average 1.5 goals, with Bangladesh failing to score in their last two encounters, suggesting a low-scoring game. Hong Kong’s 1-0 India win and Bangladesh’s 2-1 Singapore loss highlight Hong Kong’s edge, but Bangladesh’s home form and Hong Kong’s 2014 T20 World Cup upset by Bangladesh (cricket) show potential for surprises.
Prediction
Hong Kong’s defensive resilience and recent qualifier success make them slight favorites, but Bangladesh’s home advantage and urgency for a first win keep it close. I predict a 1-0 Hong Kong win, with Pereira or Orr scoring, and Bangladesh struggling to break Hong Kong’s defense (no goals conceded in qualifiers). Hong Kong’s win probability is around 45%, reflecting their 1-0 India win and Bangladesh’s 0-0 India draw. Expect Hong Kong to edge possession (around 52%) and corners (6-7 projected), with Bangladesh’s counters limited by their low scoring rate (0.5 goals per game). The game should be tight, with Hong Kong’s clinical edge securing three points to strengthen their Group C position.
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